Rapid-fire. All the pairs I’m watching, all the set ups. We have quite a few momentum scenarios and the one in the EUR/USD could reveal where the pair is heading to next. The bulls and risk appetite came back today and took back much of the Wednesday losses showing that – for now – traders are fine with QE being shelved.
The video is posted in the Members Section.
The Wave as I call it is my bread and butter and knife. It’s at the heart of how I analyze the markets and the way I choose the correct strategy to enter all my trades.
I certainly did not invent exponential moving averages, nor the 34 setting (that’s 100% Fibonacci) but the way I use them on a high/low/close setting and clock angles to measure market cycles (didn’t invent those either but learned of those from Charles Dow) is all me. I can’t say there is any other indicator out there that will identify market cycles on any time frame and in any market.
I don’t say this to brag nor to “lay claim” to the study…heck if I wanted to do that I would have named it after myself which seems to be the trend with studies nowadays…and I actually for a short time I tried calling it the “RCI” because traders would confuse my referring to the Wave with Elliot Wave. But “RCI” (Raghee’s Cycle Indicator) was just not something that rolled off the tongue and I’ve been calling my study the Wave for so darn long that I couldn’t ever get the hang of the name change.
I put this tool together at the urging of a student and we experimented, laughed, cried and broke more than a few keyboards in the process of testing the Fibonacci series to 144 and figuring out lookbacks, and moving average settings, and angles…I shared these settings and ideas in my first book back in 2004 – at this time I had been using this tool for over a decade.
I see that lately there are a lot of references to market cycles and can’t help but think that Charles Dow’s work is again finding a new audience. I see the 34EMA on the high/low/close being used a lot too and that makes me smile. It’s the topic of the most popular thread at Forex Factory. Very cool.
The Wave is designed to work with any trading strategy you use. What the 34EMA on the high/low/close will do for you is allow you to identify when to use your trending following, tend reversal, momentum, or rangebound entry strategy. The Wave is going to tell you the market cycle and whether you trade chart patterns, support/resistance, Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, anything!! your will know what to do at the decision levels of your analysis.
…and more about my trading tools
Read about my “GRaB’ (Green, Red, and Blue”) charting …and read about the experiment.
Download the updated “GRaB” 2.0 MT4 plug in …
Videos for Premium Members…
My Wave (Raghee’s Cycle Indicator) and Market Cycles
Lazy Days Lines
Sentiment + Momentum = Trend
Here’s the download link again. This plug-in will overlay both the GRaB (color-coded candles) and the 34EMA Wave on any version of MT4.
Download the zipped file here. ’nuff said.
(Special thanks to Jimmy J.)
After unzipping the files (I use WINRAR), I put the “GRaB Candles Long”, “GRaB Candles Short”, “GRaB Candles Range” in the “indicators” folder. You can find this if you go into you C: drive –> Program Files –> MetaTrader (or whatever version of MT4 you are using is called) –> experts –> indicators
Please do not send me your installation questions. I haven’t the time to address these.
A common error is not unzipping the files first before putting them in the indicators folder.
Also the GRaB will occasionally cause a “shadow” set of candles on the chart. It looks like another candle overlay. If those does occur, simply change the time frame of that chart to something else, let it load, and then change it back.
Also, check out the tutorial I have recorded.
Premium Members, this weekend the newly updated videos will be posted at Lesson from a Trader.
The U.S. Dollar Index rallied today but is the momentum sustainable. I explain why I think the dollar rallied, why I think this is just a buyng opportunity for equities bulls, and what to watch for as the post-Bernanke dust settles.
I also follow up on the Forex in the Morning video set ups.
This morning’s dollar breakdown is discussed as is the trigger from the pullback in crude oil and the current support levels. On a related note, comm-dolls are waking back up again and I look at the Directional Bias in the USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD and the swing entries that are fianlly following through. The USD/JPY is also discussed and I look at the intraday and end-of-day set ups that offer a little something for everyone, whether bullish or bearish. In fact, the USD/JPY and EUR/USD are the subject of two Lesson from a Trader videos for those of you who want a closer look and the trades dissected.
Crude oil’s rally is and has been ready for a correction and we’re seeing it now for a second session. But the move lower today towards the daily 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement presents some questions. First is whether the correction is done and second is whether the comm-dolls are reacting? Is this is signal that risk is off. The Dow and dollar are discussed as well to answer that question. The video has been posted in the Daily Review section.
Members, the Forex PM video has been posted. Guests, tonight’s video discusses the risk environment that we’re seeing after the Dow’s recovery. The yen is telling a very different story while the yen pairs – AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and USD/JPY – are correcting triggering entry opportunities. The EUR/USD has been giving traders fits, but the pair does have a handful of triggers that are setting up intraday. The comm-dolls look ripe for a transition, and I explain the signs to watch for and the adjustments that have to be made.
Members, all entry levels and daily Directional Bias are reviewed. See you in the morning!
By the way, if you missed the Sunday posting of Forex AM here at the blog, be sure to check it out. I’m getting some terrific feedback!
Tonight, with some free time on my hands, and feeling a little nostalgic, I recorded an episode of what used to be called ForexAM. This is a fast-paced 30-minute forex ride where I go through the pairs I trade and focus on the set ups that I am watching.
Guests, I hope you like the sneak-peek! Members, here’s a look at what’s to come!
The USD/CAD launched this morning but the challenge is that the overall psychology continues to be bearish as the pair trades below parity and the 200DMA. What are the short and longer-term set ups. Take a look…
OK, so apparently the fourth day of my juice cleanse is starting to affect my mind…I apologize, it was brought to my attention that I used the USD/CHF Powerstats graph instead of the USD/CAD graph for price movement range. I will fix this ASAP.
I’m often asked about the “forextra” and the set ups I see on these futures markets. I watch and/or trade these side-by-side with my forex pairs. It’s a “one mind, many markets” philosoph and makes sense for me. Tonight I’m sharing my outlook on three of the “forextra” markets as well as the Directional Bias and potential entry opportunities in gold and crude oil.