Daily GPS October 11, 2016

Wednesday is the “official” start to this week.

The FOMC Meeting Minutes may not shock. The cat is out of the bag already. Apparently, the vote to hike was a “close call” – according to Vice Chair Stanley Fisher.

Looking at the November Fed Fund Futures chart, it’s still a “no”. The December chart reflects a confident maybe.

By the way, it’s great to be back in your email inbox today. Between Hurricane Mathew and some work travel it was difficult to get my own GPS going. It’s a wise decision to know when to tap the breaks on trading, let some winners ride, and wait for the set ups come to me.

For those of you who may have missed my election trading discussion, the replay is here. https://www.simplertrading.com/webinar/trade-the-election/replay

Outside of the FOMC Meeting Minutes…gold, crude, which central bank is most dovish, and can Prime Minister May alone really set a date for trigger Article 50 (aka beginning the the Brexit process) are all on my radar.

Traders have been wanting to take advantage of a breakdown in gold for weeks. On October 4th, thanks to the Maria Draghi and the ECB they have their reason.

Looking at the timing of the move lower though 1300, the ECB’s decision to not move to even lower negative interest rates was all gold sellers needed. Consider that gold has benefited from negative interest rates around the globe. The precious metal is one-part currency and one-part saving account replacement. If more NIRP is not a reality, neither are 1300 buyers in gold.

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Perhaps you already know I am a huge TradeStation fan. For those of you wanting to try my 34EMA Wave and GRaB Candles (free) you can do so on Trading View as well.

I’m watching the 200 period Simple Moving Average. The timing of this support is closing in on a major catalyst in the FOMC Meeting Minutes release.

Crude oil’s future movement rests with…Russia.

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Whether this is a giant bamboozle (probably) and whether crude continues to rally through 50/barrell will have a lot to do with whether OPEC and Russia can agree to a cut/freeze/something.

This Russia story has been pulling from opposite directions. There’s the narrative that the Russian Energy Minister is not optimistic about an OPEC deal at the World Energy Conference in Istanbul this week.

There’s another narrative that Putin says that Russia is ready to join OPEC.

“Russia is ready to join in joint measures to limit output and calls on other oil exporters to do the same…In the current situation, we think that a freeze or even a cut in oil production is probably the only proper decision to preserve stability in the global energy market.”Vladamir Putin

There’s still plenty of time for minds to change…and change again before the next OPEC meeting on November 30. By the way, Russia is selling more crude than ever to China and their output just reached record highs last month.

Baker Hughes (BHI) rig counts are at a eight month high.

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Deutsche Bank has yet to reach a deal on their current $14billion fine.

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UK Prime Minister May may not actually be allowed to trigger Article 50 without consent from lawmakers.

Oh and did I mention that most of them were pro-EU? Look for GBP/USD volatility on the hearing dates of the 13th and 17th.

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Great to be back and sharing my analysis with you! Thanks for reading.

– Raghee

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